As Manchester City enter the final year of Pep Guardiola’s current contract, the spectre of life after the manager looms larger than ever.
Guardiola has overseen City’s most successful era, but his time at the Etihad Stadium is potentially drawing to a close.
The cautionary tale of Manchester United’s post-2013 decline serves as a blueprint for what not to do when a legendary figure departs.
United’s first mistake was allowing Sir Alex Ferguson to hand-pick his successor, David Moyes.
City must resist any urge to let Guardiola do the same. They are reportedly taking a more analytical approach.
Chairman Khaldoon Al Mubarak and new sporting director Hugo Viana have drawn up a list of potential replacements, including Enzo Maresca.
He served as Guardiola’s assistant during the 2022-23 treble-winning season.
United’s immediate dismantling of Ferguson’s backroom staff also contributed to their decline, as Moyes brought in his own team and severed the institutional memory of a winning culture.
City have mitigated this risk by bringing in Viana from Sporting CP well in advance of Guardiola’s potential exit, ensuring the structure remains stable regardless of who is in the dugout.
In the 13 years since Ferguson, United have cycled through the pragmatism of Jose Mourinho, the ‘DNA’ focus of Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, and the tactical rigidity of Erik ten Hag and Ruben Amorim.
This has resulted in an identity crisis and around £1.5 billion in scattergun transfer spending. The lesson is clear for City – the system must outlive the man.
As Guardiola enters what many believe is his ‘last dance’ in 2026/27, the City hierarchy knows that replacing someone of his quality is virtually impossible.
However, by prioritising structural stability over individual personality, they can ensure they do not fade into the same darkness that engulfed their neighbours.
